Sarajevo — Bosnia is on edge ahead of a court verdict for Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who is accused of defying the international envoy who oversees peace accords that ended the country’s 1990s war.
His trial marks a potential tipping point for the divided Balkan nation, with Dodik threatening to take his Republika Srpska (RS) out of Bosnia if the verdict goes against him.
He is charged with refusing to comply with decisions made by Christian Schmidt, the international high representative for Bosnia who oversees the 1995 Dayton agreement that ended nearly four years of fighting that killed an estimated 100,000 people.
A verdict is expected Wednesday in the case against Dodik, president of RS, one of the two entities that make up deeply divided Bosnia. He has been on trial since February 2024.
“Your verdict will determine the future of Bosnia,” Dodik told the judge in Sarajevo as the trial ended last week, adding to reporters as he left the court that the ruling could deal a “fatal blow” to the country.
Prosecutors demanded a jail sentence of nearly five years and a 10-year ban on holding public office.
Dodik is not expected to be in court for the verdict and will have the right to appeal.
The 65-year-old has repeatedly denounced the proceedings as a US-backed witch hunt aiming to “eliminate him from political life”.
Ahead of the verdict, institutions in the RS capital of Banja Luka have been put on alert and are “ready” to take action, according to Dodik.
“The situation is tense enough that it could escalate… but I don’t expect a physical conflict at this time,” said Milos Solaja, a professor at the political science faculty at the University of Banja Luka.
Post-war politics
Since the end of the 1992-1995 war, Bosnia has been split between the semi-autonomous RS and the Muslim-Croat Federation. The two are linked by weak central institutions, and each has its own government.
Dodik has said if found guilty, he will undo reforms adopted after the war to strengthen the central state — including targeting the army, customs, taxes and law enforcement in RS.
Several Bosniak Muslim leaders have reacted strongly.
“These are threats to peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and they must be taken seriously,” said Denis Becirovic, the Bosniak Muslim member of the tripartite presidency.
Defence Minister Zukan Helez called on “international actors,” notably European Union security forces in Bosnia, to be “ready to act to preserve peace and stability”.
“We are ready for all scenarios. Dodik cannot realise his dreams,” added Bosnia’s Foreign Minister Elmedin Konakovic.
Turning point
Political analyst Ranko Mavrak called Dodik’s threats part of a “well-honed game” whose objectives are to “weaken the capabilities of the central state and thus create the conditions for secession”.
Mavrak said Dodik was likely to see how far he could push his agenda amid the geopolitical uncertainties in Europe ignited by US President Donald Trump’s comments questioning the future strength of the NATO alliance.
“This could potentially threaten the stability of the Western Balkans if the European Union remains passive and does not take the lead in the region, instead of the United States,” Mavrak told AFP.
Others argued that Bosnian officials are too weak to confront a defiant Dodik.
Bosnian institutions “lack sufficient strength to oppose Dodik”, political analyst Enver Kazaz said during a recent televised interview, where he warned of the risk of “conflict” if authorities attempted to arrest the politician.
Solaja said that Dodik’s trial could be a turning point for Bosnia’s post-war order, and that the country’s power brokers needed to urgently clarify the role of the international high representative as well as agree governance reforms.
Otherwise, “Bosnia has no chance and can only move toward greater instability and insecurity,” he told AFP.
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Source: AFP
Picture: X/@MiloradDodik
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