‘No alternative’: Ramaphosa’s future hangs in the balance

Ramaphosa

Johannesburg – It was predicted to go badly but turned out to be worse: President Cyril Ramaphosa led the ANC to its worst election result since the end of apartheid, one which threatens his survival.

Returns from more than 99 percent of the polling stations used in Wednesday’s election showed ANC had barely scraped past 40 percent of the vote, a spectacular drop from the 57.5 it won in 2019.

The shock result will prove a litmus test for Ramaphosa, a popular party figure with a reputation as a fine negotiator beneath his affable demeanour, political commentators say.

ANC, a now divided movement that led the nation out of white-minority rule and into democracy, will remain the largest party in parliament but will lose its majority, heralding choppy uncharted waters for the party once led by Nelson Mandela.

It will have to forge alliances to re-elect Ramaphosa at the end of the month and stay in power, with its hand forced into possible concessions with minnows it failed to beat in the election.

But Ramaphosa will first have to persuade his party’s all powerful yet split National Executive Committee to keep him in the job.

In 2022, his party lawmakers closed ranks around him at an impeachment vote over a scandal subbed “farmgate” that nearly cost him his job, when hundreds of thousands of dollars were reported stolen from a sofa in his country home.

He was also re-elected the ANC president that same year in a race that looked closer than expected.

“The party has rallied around him to a certain extent. There have been very high level comments saying ‘we are not going to recall Ramaphosa’,” Christopher Vandome, senior research fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, told AFP.

‘Too many skeletons’ 

The 71-year-old former trade unionist and mines boss came into power in 2018 as a graft-busting saviour after the corruption-tainted tenure of predecessor Jacob Zuma.

A fluent speaker of all of the country’s 11 official languages, he took up anti-apartheid activism while studying law in the 1970s and spent 11 months in solitary confinement in 1974.

Preferred by Mandela as his heir, he stood alongside the liberation hero when he walked out of jail in 1990. But the farmgate case dealt a massive reputational blow to the wealthy businessman and for many the storied ANC has become synonymous with corruption.

Ramaphosa has denied any wrongdoing.

South Africans remain vexed by a prolonged water and electricity crisis that has put a drag on Africa’s most industrialised economy with crime and unemployment rates running high.

Yet the lack of a formidable successor could keep Ramaphosa in power, author and analyst Susan Booysen said.

“The irony is that there are no real alternatives in the ANC at this point,” she told AFP, adding that names that were being floated had “too much baggage, too many skeletons.”

“In how I read the signals at this stage is Ramaphosa is surviving despite the dismal and disastrous performance of the ANC,” Booysen said.

Calls to quit 

With no unifying candidate to take over from Ramaphosa, the choice of a bedfellow could prove the next hurdle.

Data from the Independent Electoral Commission showed the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) held second place with 21.71 percent, slightly up on its 20.77 showing in 2019.

But it was not the DA that dealt the decisive blow.

In third place was former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) on 12.6 percent, a surprise score for a party founded just months ago as a vehicle for the former ANC chief.

The ANC could have no choice but to co-opt the DA into a national coalition government, analysts say, describing it as Ramaphosa’s best bet for survival.

“The DA will want to keep Ramaphosa in charge and would not want the other alternatives,” said Vandome.

Booysen agreed.

Miraculous canvassing 

“The possible coalition partners don’t pose an alternative, don’t bring an alternative, charismatic, dynamic, popular president.”

Zuma’s MK has vowed to play hard ball, ruling out any partnership talks if Ramaphosa remained at the helm of ANC.

“We will engage with the ANC but not the ANC of Cyril Ramaphosa,” spokesman Nhlamulo Ndhlela said.

Ramaphosa’s future nonetheless hangs fragile, threatening to follow the footsteps of his predecessors Zuma and Thabo Mbeki, who did not complete their tenures and were forced out by the ANC.

“That man did very well for the ANC. He led from the front,” said ANC deputy secretary general Nomvula Mokonyane, defending Ramaphosa’s record.

“He did miraculous canvassing, criss-crossed the country. All those that are doing any speculation don’t know the ANC.”

 

#ElectionResults: ANC set to lose majority, seeks coalition

Johannesburg – South Africa’s ruling ANC faced a search for allies to help it form a new government on Saturday after it lost its three-decade-old absolute majority in a watershed election.

With 99 percent of the votes from Wednesday’s election counted, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress had only 40 percent, a catastrophic slump from the 57.5 it won in 2019.

This marks an historic turning point for South Africa as the party has enjoyed an absolute majority since 1994, when liberation leader Nelson Mandela led the nation out of white-minority rule and into democracy.

The ANC must now either negotiate a coalition government, or at least persuade other parties to back Ramaphosa’s re-election in parliament to allow him to form a minority government reliant on other parties for support to pass budgets and legislation.

“We have been talking with everybody even before the election,” ANC’s deputy secretary general Nomvula Mokonyane said, saying the party’s NEC decision-making body would meet to decide on a course of action after final results are announced.

“It’s about ensuring that the stability both in government and stability in our country.”

She would not be drawn on whether the party might replace Ramaphosa after the party’s record poor showing, saying: “For now, it’s not an issue.”

Channels opened 

As votes continued to be validated, data from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) showed the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) held second place with 21.71 percent, slightly up on its 20.77 showing in 2019.

The party, which governs Western Cape province and has promised a free market agenda at odds with the ANC’s left-wing traditions.

Asked about the chances of a coalition with the ANC, Helen Zille, the DA party chairwoman, said: “Negotiations haven’t started but some channels have been opened, individuals talking to individuals.”

She also did not rule out allowing the ANC to attempt to rule alone, telling AFP: “A minority government would be something completely new in South Africa but it is an option amongst others”

But it was not a surge by the DA that cut into the ANC’s vote share.

In third place was former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) on 12.6 percent, a surprise score for a party founded just months ago as a vehicle for the former ANC chief.

The radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) was in fourth with 9.4 percent.

Too erratic? 

Malema and Zuma are former ANC members and some observers have suggested that they would be more natural partners for the ruling coalition, a prospect that the DA has branded the “Doomsday Coalition”.

But other analysts, including author Susan Booysen, said the EFF was perceived as “too erratic” and “unpredictable” in its demands.

And the rift between Ramaphosa and Zuma — who has long been bitter about the way he was forced out of office in 2018 — was “too far reaching” to mend, she said.

MK spokesman Nhlamulo Ndhlela seemed to agree. “We will engage with the ANC but not the ANC of Cyril Ramaphosa,” he said.

Any coalition partner should be willing to amend the constitution to enact radical reforms and grant Zuma, who has been declared ineligible over a contempt of court conviction, a pardon, he said.

The ANC retains the loyalty of many voters for its leading role in overthrowing white minority rule.

Its progressive social welfare and black economic empowerment policies are credited by supporters with helping millions of black families out of poverty.

But over three decades of almost unchallenged rule, its leadership has been implicated in a series of large-scale corruption scandals, while the continent’s most industrialised economy has languished and crime and unemployment figures have hit record highs.

 

#ElectionResults: ANC set to lose majority, seeks coalition

Johannesburg — South Africa’s ruling ANC awaited the imminent confirmation on Saturday that it had lost its three-decade-old absolute majority and would have to find allies if it is to remain in power.

With more than 98 percent of the votes from Wednesday’s election counted, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress had only 40.15 percent support, a catastrophic slump from the 57.5 it won in 2019.

This marks an historic turning point for South Africa as the party has enjoyed an absolute majority since 1994, when liberation leader Nelson Mandela led the nation out of white-minority rule and into democracy.

“We have been talking with everybody even before the election,” ANC’s deputy secretary general Nomvula Mokonyane told AFP on Friday, saying the party’s decision-making body would set the course to follow after final results are announced.

“Anything must be based on principles and not an act of desperation.”

As votes continued to be validated, data from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) showed the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) held second place with 21.71 percent, slightly up on its 20.77 showing in 2019.

But it was not a surge by the DA that cut into the ANC’s vote share.

In third place was former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) on 12.6 percent, a surprise score for a party founded just months ago as a vehicle for the former ANC chief.

The radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) was in fourth with 9.4 percent.

The final results were to be formally announced on Sunday, but the IEC results website was being updated through the day and with the result no longer in doubt, politicians were turning their attention to the prospects of an ANC-led coalition.

No pardon, no party

The ANC has dominated South Africa’s democracy with an unbroken run of five presidents from the party, but if President Cyril Ramaphosa is to remain at the helm he will have to decide whether to seek allies on his right or left.

There will be resistance within his movement to a tie-up with the second-placed DA, under white politician John Steenhuisen, whose free market programme of privatisations and an end to black economic empowerment programmes sits at odds with the ruling party’s traditions.

Mandela’s grandson, Mandla Mandela, an outgoing ANC lawmaker, told AFP the DA held “different ideals” making it too difficult to partner with.

The radical left groups led by former ANC figures: firebrand Julius Malema’s EFF or Zuma’s MK, were more likely bedfellows, he said.

But these options might also meet resistance within the more moderate sections of the ANC.

Analyst and author Susan Booysen, said the EFF was perceived as “too erratic” and “unpredictable” in its demands.

And the rift between Ramaphosa and Zuma – who has long been bitter about the way he was forced out of office in 2018 – was “too far reaching” to mend, she said.

MK spokesman Nhlamulo Ndhlela seemed to agree. “We will engage with the ANC but not the ANC of Cyril Ramaphosa,” he said.

Any coalition partner should be willing to amend the constitution to enact radical reforms and grant Zuma, who has been declared ineligible over a contempt of court conviction, a pardon, he said.

But Mokonyane dismissed the notion that Ramaphosa’s leadership was at risk, saying: “In the ANC we don’t work that way. It’s not a presidential election. It was an election that the ANC went in as a party and we are happy with it.”

The ANC retains the loyalty of many voters for its leading role in overthrowing white minority rule.

Its progressive social welfare and black economic empowerment policies are credited by supporters with helping millions of black families out of poverty.

But over three decades of almost unchallenged rule, its leadership has been implicated in a series of large-scale corruption scandals, while the continent’s most industrialised economy has languished and crime and unemployment figures have hit record highs.

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Source: AFP

Picture: X/@tndaba

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