Cape Town — New data from the latest IPSOS poll shows that the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) could emerge as the leading opposition party to the African Natioanl Congress (ANC), overtaking the Democratic Alliance (DA).
The poll, conducted from 23 October to 1 December 2023, aimed to show the political pulse of the country. Notably, it started before the establishment of the newly-formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, so their impact is yet to be measured, IOL reported.
The poll uses a mock ballot paper to ensure voter confidentiality, and the survey offers an insight into the electorate’s preferences. One of the scenarios psoed to voters was “If there were National [or Provincial] elections tomorrow, which political party would you vote for?”
Those results showed the ANC leading with 38.5% of votes, with the EFF (18.6%) edging the DA (173%). The Inkatha Freedom Party (3.6%) and ActionSA(3.4%) rounded out the top 5.
ANC to drop below 40% on 2024 elections and EFF beating DA according to the latest IPSOS Poll.
IPSOS conducted the survey from 1 Oct 2023 to 1 December 2023, that is before MK Party was announce.
With MK Party in the picture, it changes everything for both ANC and EFF pic.twitter.com/NMXFRHtS9h
— Entrepreneur Zone (@SayEntrepreneur) February 6, 2024
According to TimesLIVE, 10.1% of respondents remain undecided, refusing to vote or to disclose their preference, which poses a challenge in predicting voter outcomes.
When the poll was reworked, the numbers showed a slight change. With the reworked numbers, the ANC polled 40.5%, with the DA retaining its role as the official opposition with 20.5% and the EFF following closely behind with 19.6%.
The poll also showed that the voter turnout would not be higher 69% to 71% due to low levels of trust in politicians and political parties. It would be an increse from 66.05% of voters in 2019.
Political analyst, Dr Sithembile Mbete, said lower voter turnout and abstaining from voting, would be of benefit to the ANC.
“Conversely, a low voter turnout could potentially benefit the ANC, potentially elevating ANC support close to the halfway (50%) mark. If the turnout is low, each of the two biggest parties we have in the system gets a bigger chunk of the pie because their voters are very likely to turn out,” Mbete said.
Ina high voter turnout, the ANC has 44% support, compared to 46.3% in a low voter turnout. The DA returned 20.2% in a high voter turnout, compared to 21% in a low voter turnout, while the EFF was at 18.5% in a high voter turnout, dropping to 165% in a low voter turnout.
If that were the case, the ANC would only need 4-6% national support as a coalition partner to establish a national government.
1/ Latest IPSOS Poll is out it’s a BANGER.
National, Medium Turnout:
ANC 45% (-12)
DA 21% (-)
EFF 18% (+7)
IFP 5% (+2)
ActionSA 4% (+4)
Others 7%Turnout in this scenario: 55-57%.
Extraordinary numbers for the EFF! This is also pre-MK(!)
— Dawie Scholtz (@DawieScholtz) February 7, 2024
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Picture: X/@EFFSouthAfrica
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Compiled by Matthew Petersen
