Tensions peak in Mozambique as results due in disputed vote

Johannesburg – Mozambique is braced for an escalation in protests after the announcement due by Monday of final results of a disputed election, a turning point in two months of unrest that has killed 130 people and caused major disruption.

Opposition leader Venancio Mondlane has threatened “chaos” if the Constitutional Council validates the initial results that found he came second in the October 9 vote to the candidate of the ruling Frelimo party.

“The country is in your hands,” Mondlane told the council Monday in one of his regular social media broadcasts from an unknown location abroad.

“If we get the electoral truth, we will go towards peace,” said the 50-year-old, who has been directing protests from self-imposed exile after leaving Mozambique weeks ago, saying he feared for his safety.

“If it is an electoral lie, we will bring the country down to a precipice, chaos and disorder,” Mondlane said in the broadcast, which has been watched by around 2.4 million people.

The council is, however, expected to sign off on the results of the election commission, which said that Mondlane won 20 percent compared to 71 percent for Daniel Chapo, the Frelimo candidate.

Mondlane says the count was rigged in favour of Frelimo and a separate count shows that he won 53 percent to 36 percent for Chapo.

The dispute has sparked an explosion of unrest in the impoverished southern African nation.

Protests have brought city centres to a standstill, disrupted industry and power plants, and halted operations at the main border with South Africa, causing its neighbour major losses in exports.

Police have been accused of using live bullets against protesters, with at least 130 people killed, according to the local civil society group Plataforma Decide, whose figures have been cited by Amnesty International.

The US government on Thursday raised its warning level against travel to Mozambique, saying protests can quickly become violent.

The country’s largest industrial employer, Mozal Aluminium, said it was making contingency plans in case of civil unrest after the announcement.

“I’m convinced that if Monday the Constitutional Council declares the election as free and fair, which I am 100 percent convinced it will, then the blood is going to flow,” said Maputo-based political and security risk analyst Johann Smith told AFP.

The council has to deliver its ruling by Monday to allow President Filipe Nyusi to hand over power at the end of his constitutionally limited two terms on January 15.

Game changer 

Mondlane said Wednesday he believed that Nyusi, 67, wanted to use the escalating tension to declare a state of emergency and stay in power.

Nyusi dismissed the suggestion in an address to the nation on Thursday. “I have always said that I have no intention of strengthening powers, and much less to serve a third term,” he said.

“I swore to respect the Constitution… and I want to make it clear that I will leave power in January 2025.”

There are also major fractures within Frelimo, which has governed since independence from Portugal in 1975, analysts say, including between Nyusi and Chapo, 47, who is expected to take over from him.

The most likely scenario is that results will be approved but with some minor changes, for example, to the handing of 195 of 250 parliamentary seats to Frelimo, says analyst Borges Nhamirre.

“Mozambique doesn’t have money to organise a new election,” he said. “Protests have already been called for Monday. The main cities, including Maputo, will be under siege because of the fear of protests,” he said.

“The whole game changes on Monday,” said Smith, who is based in Maputo.

“Until now, there were a few incidents, looting and so on but in the greater scheme of things, the protests were mainly calm and there weren’t a lot of problems.”

“Everyone is recharging and preparing for the announcement on Monday. It will be a lot more intense and bloody.”