Lagos – What does US president-elect Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House mean for Africa, a continent which he largely dismissed in insulting terms during his first presidency.
Despite the undiplomatic rhetoric, most observers don’t expect Trump’s re-election to make much difference to US-Africa ties, and it may provide opportunities for some.
Africa is well-used to being ignored by US policy makers, or to being treated as a pawn in the larger struggle for influence between Washington and Beijing, and lately Russia too.
Outgoing leader Joe Biden has not yet visited Africa as president, having rescheduled a trip planned to oil-exporter Angola in October. He will now visit next month.
If any African leaders were feeling tired of the West’s lectures about rights and the rule of law, they might appreciate Trump’s bluntly transactional approach to international relations.
And, if Trump’s White House doesn’t want to work with the governments of what he once reportedly called “shithole countries”, the continent now has more options for international partners.
China is investing in infrastructure while cornering access to key minerals; Russia provides mercenaries to several regimes; and the Gulf states and Turkey are gaining in influence.
“If he wants to work with Africa as a friend of Africa, we will welcome him and work with him,” former Kenyan premier and veteran politician 79-year-old Raila Odinga said of Trump’s return.
“If he does not want to work with Africa… Africa has got other friends,” said Odinga, one of four candidates vying to replace Moussa Faki Mahamat as chair of the African Union Commission.
Trade war?
The incoming US president is openly hostile to multilateral bodies like the UN and AU and prefers to seek influence through bilateral deals with favoured strongmen.
Trump’s declared plan to levy tariffs on imports to the United States may hurt some African exporters, especially if he fails to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
Enacted in 2000, the law is due for renewal next year. It provides duty-free access for some products from 32 sub-Saharan African countries, last year totalling $9.7 billion in value.
But the bigger impact of Trump’s tariff policies would be a trade war with China, and this could end up having a larger effect on ties with Africa.
The United States and its western allies are competing for influence with China’s investment programme, and many African capitals are happy to play both sides against each other.
This year, for example, Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Angola to tout US investment in the Lobito Corridor, to build rail access to Atlantic ports for mines in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
But if Trump’s confrontational winner-takes-all style leads him to pressure Africa to eschew Chinese investment and to pick a side, his bluster may fall on deaf ears.
Mukhisa Kituyi, a Kenyan politician who served as secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, said Africa had no business taking sides.
“We don’t want people to just say: ‘Stop China to grow in Africa’. Who wants America to grow in Africa?” he asked.
“It is absolutely none of the business of Africa whether America feels that it has slowed down China,” he insisted, suggesting the United States try to match China’s investment levels.
With several senior African leaders joining Biden at the G20 summit this week in Brazil, will the Trump era be business as usual?
Perhaps, but any turbulence in the world economy could have stark consequences for Africa.
In a note last week for Capital Economics, economist David Omojomolo warned Trump’s protectionism would lead to a stronger dollar, making it harder for some African economies to access world capital markets.
Energy giants Angola and Nigeria “could also be hurt if Trump’s support for US oil and gas supply leads to lower global prices”.
Some Africans, especially Nigerians who were cryptocurrency pioneers during Trump’s first term, hailed a surge in bitcoin prices on his re-election and want him to roll back Biden-era regulation.
US isolation?
Despite the potential raw economic opportunities of a Trump presidency, Africa is still unlikely to see the world through Washington’s eyes.
South African leaders responded with scorn during their May general election after a white-led opposition party suggested bringing in American poll observers.
Never in the country’s 30-year history of democracy, they noted, had a party rejected an election result nor stormed parliament, as Trump supporters did when he lost the 2020 vote to Biden.
And many Africans cheered South Africa when it brought a case to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, accusing Israel of genocide.
Washington condemned the move and Trump’s incoming administration has signalled that it will staunchly back Israel in its conflict with the Palestinians.
The rift over Israel is just one of the disputes that could accelerate Africa’s slide towards the camp of Washington’s opponents.
South Africa, Egypt and Ethiopia are now members of the BRICs group -with Brazil, China, Iran, Russia, India and the UAE – and Nigeria is pushing to join.
Analysts like the Egmont Institute’s Reinhold Brender have warned that the West cannot allow Trump’s America First policies to push the continent closer to Russia and China, through organisations like the BRICs.
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Source: AFP
Picture: Instagram/@realdonaldtrump
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